As the economic outlook darkens due to US trade barriers, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is about to announce a rate cut for the sixth consecutive meeting and hinted that it may continue to ease monetary policy in the future.

According to a poll of 23 economists, 22 predicted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25% on Wednesday (Wellington time), with only one predicting a 50 basis point cut. The MPC is likely to signal at least one more rate cut by forecasting the OCR will fall below 3% this year.

Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac in Auckland, said: "We expect the RBNZ to cut its OCR forecast by about 20 basis points to around 2.9% at the end of 2025. After this meeting, the central bank is likely to maintain its policy bias of further easing depending on the data."

New Zealand's central bank said last month it had room to cut interest rates further as U.S. tariffs posed downside risks to economic activity and inflation. Despite a recent easing of trade tensions, continued uncertainty will continue to dampen New Zealand's recovery from last year's recession.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its decision at 2 p.m. local time on Wednesday, and Governor Christian Hawkesby will hold a press conference an hour later. The central bank will also update its economic forecasts to reflect its assessment of the extent to which global trade turmoil is affecting growth.

"Despite some de-escalation in the tariff conflict, we still believe the US-China trade war will have a net negative impact on the New Zealand economy and inflation in the medium term," said Wesley Tanuvasa, economist at ASB Bank in Auckland. "The significant uncertainty means the central bank will want to maintain policy flexibility, so we expect its comments on the monetary policy outlook to remain cautious and data and event-dependent."

Recent data has been mixed. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in the first quarter, better than market expectations. Commodity prices remained firm and inflation expectations also rose.

Economists and the central bank predict that inflation will accelerate from the current 2.2% to the upper end of the central bank's 1-3% target range before slowing again next year.

At the same time, the real estate market continues to be sluggish, business confidence has declined, and the government's austerity budget announced last week was considered by the Ministry of Finance to create conditions for further declines in interest rates.

Some economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the OCR to 2.5% this year, while the market generally believes that a reduction to 2.75% is more likely.

"In the current environment, there is ample room for strategic policymaking," said Sharon Zollner, chief economist for New Zealand at ANZ Bank in Auckland. "We still expect the RBNZ to eventually cut the OCR to 2.5%, but we don't think it will send such a clear signal at this stage."